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怎样才能算早教机器人?早教机器人“动起来”不容易,面临销售增长瓶颈、抢滩内容生态、如何抬高天花板?

转载来源:芥末堆 发布日期:2019年08月15日 婴童玩具

在早教硬件领域,火火兔算是最早的入局者之一。2010年,火火兔率先推出第一款儿童故事机,当年销量突破30万台。

2014年,涌入早教的玩家变多,早教机的形态和功能也从无屏逐渐演变为有屏,从主打娱乐陪伴到强调娱乐早教。

伴随人工智能技术的发展,早教机器人形态2015年开始出现,且价格差距很大,低至一、两百,高至两、三千。

但几年的发展下来,早教机器人的智能程度一直未实现大的突破:语音对话呆板,识别准确度不够,AI技术限于简单对话、点播和口语评测?;魅舜钤氐亩胖誓谌菀惨廊蝗狈?,且大多智能硬件商不具备生产运营内容的能力,只能引入第三方内容,同质化问题突出。

换言之,比起原来的早教机,早教机器人本质上没有太大不同。

市场反应也很明显。过去两年,火火兔的增长速度已经降到10%;去年实现十亿元营收、体量据称行业第一的智伴机器人,如今也面临增长瓶颈。

但好在早教机器人的市场仍然足够大。一方面,越来越多家长愿意为早教投入;另一方面,早教机器人,仍然是比手机、平板更好的触发内容的交互形态。更何况,早教机器人领域远未到出现行业领导者的时候,谁都还没有对早教机器人的功能、形态应该做成什么样给出定义。

拂去AI概念的喧嚣之后,无论是儿童早教产品公司、还是人工智能科技企业,都开始沉下心来打磨自己的内容生态:谁能做出足够丰富、个性化的内容,谁能把内容生态运营好,那谁就有可能在早教市场抢占先机。

机器人“不智能”

怎样才能算早教机器人?

对于这一赛道上的创业者来说,其定义已达成基本共识:具备语音交互能力,能联网。这两个特点,把早教机器人和早教机区分开来。

目前市面上大多早教机器人,标配的语音交互功能是语音唤醒、简单问答,复杂一些的附带点播、智能语音评测等。但大部分早教机器人在语音识别率、准确率及体验的个性化表现上,都不尽人意。譬如,口齿不够清晰的儿童,唤不醒机器人;问到程序设定以外的问题,机器人就答非所问;智能点播,播的常常不是你想点的。

AI交互体验一言难尽,本质是因为整个行业的语音技术还处于较初级的阶段。早教产品公司普遍没有能力自己做AI,依赖于第三方互联网公司的AI语音方案。牛听听总经理段海云认为,在AI语音技术上,百度、小米、阿里、科大讯飞,没有太实质性的差异,也没有谁有明显优势。

对于早教产品公司,造成差异的地方在于和人工智能方案提供商的合作程度。合作紧密度高、投入更大的,综合效果会好一些。对此,智伴认为自己有独特优势。CEO王不凡表示,智伴和语音公司、云公司深度搭建了私有云平台,而且有自己的儿童语音识别团队,在儿童语音交互上可以做得更好。

但总体而言,在行业AI技术未成熟的大背景之下,产品公司难以在AI交互上竖起壁垒。段海云认为,目前这个阶段,AI功能华而不实。而一旦没有达到预想的效果,孩子就不会再用。

“动起来”不容易

在早教机器人行业有一个公开的秘密:做儿童教育机器人,很多公司有现成的硬件公模,直接在公?;∩仙宰鲂薷木涂梢?,贴上牌就可以卖。需要改一下唤醒词和APP的,约一两个月时间就能完成开发。因此,早教机器人同质化、品质差问题突出。

在儿童机器人形态上,能做出差异化的,优必选的人形机器人属于前列。2015—2018年,优必选推出四款Alpha系列人形机器人和悟空机器人。除了能语音交互,这些人形机器人还有肢体动作,能跳舞运动,表现力更好。

要让机器人动起来,核心在于舵机研发。优必选多年研发舵机,一些核心部件自研、加工,资源丰富且资金实力强,构成一定竞争壁垒。

但拥有这一研发能力的公司是极少数。且即便是技术已较成熟的优必选,也难以把成本降下来。优必选教育业务负责人钟永表示,成本居高不下是因为供应链不成熟,而供应链不成熟本质上还是因为需求不足。优必选的Alpha系列机器人,售价为2999—9999元。

成本降不下来,产品也很难卖出去。而且,除了交互的感觉更好,在教育内容上,Alpha机器人和普通的早教机器人没有太多不同。优必选早年生产的Alpha系列机器人,均销量平平。

销售增长瓶颈

AI的风吹过以后,早教机器人的销量并不像市场炒得那样火爆。之前大火的阿尔法蛋机器人、智伴、火火兔近年都面临销量增长瓶颈。

火火兔2010年推出的经典款故事机在当年销量突破30万台,2014年系列故事机销量则超过了 150 万台,在天猫和京东都是儿童智能玩具品类中排行第一。2016年,火火兔创始人李鑫曾预计产品销量会突破200万。

但过去两年,火火兔销量增速已放缓。徐宝龙告诉记者,现在火火兔年增长率降到10%左右。在火火兔的天猫旗舰店上,销量最好的品类是其早年推出的故事机G6系列,月销量为1.1万台;而最近刚上线的早教机器人J7Pro,月销量仅为390台。

“过去只是做好产品,然后‘随便卖’,现在要改革了?!薄八姹懵簟?,指的是更多依靠用户的口碑相传,没有在营销上花费太大力气。徐宝龙说,火火兔目前正在推动营销、运营的规范化。具体而言,销售的每个流程,包括经销商的能力如何、铺设范围是否科学、什么店卖什么产品,都要细化。现在,火火兔的销售渠道包括母婴连锁店、电商和省市经销商。

在渠道上,智伴向来被认为拥有优势。王不凡介绍,智伴有三个销售大通路:自营电销、线下渠道和微商。其中,微商是最大的渠道,智伴现在已有10万多小代理商。线下渠道方面,智伴在沃尔玛超市、孩子王、新华书店、机场零售店等地方都有自己的专柜,主要在二线城市。未来会往三四线城市下沉,预计今年底进入超过1万店。

虽然智伴的渠道优势在行业内闻名,但对于这种卖法,也有不少人保持着不同的观点。优必选钟永认为,智伴广铺渠道,其实也反映了产品复购率、留存度低的问题,只能通过不断拉新来增加用户?!罢饷辞康那老?,其实他还是推不动,业绩是下滑的。扩张渠道,吃完人口红利以后,也就没了?!敝佑浪?。

抢滩内容生态

技术和供应链未成熟,机器人的交互属性短期内难以突破,打磨内容生态自然成为出口。

对此,一些早教产品公司早已行动起来。

2010年便已开始生产早教智能硬件的火火兔,最初内容团队只有2人。彼时还是PC时代,适合儿童的内容更少。有家长在网站留言内容不够,火火兔慢慢开始扩充内容团队。

如今,火火兔建有30人的内容团队,每年在内容上投入6、700万。制作10集的动画片,耗时就接近6个月。

内容丰富度被徐宝龙视为火火兔区别于其他早教机器人的核心壁垒。一方面,火火兔自研内容,比例占30%,且拥有不错的播放量和口碑:“火火兔讲绘本”音频累计有1300万播放量,而且喜马拉雅、央视少儿频道都购买了部分火火兔自研内容。

另一方面,火火兔和喜马拉雅达成合作,可以免费引入喜马拉雅所有儿童内容。徐宝龙表示,“火火兔的内容广度大于所有同行?!?/p>

虽然相较于成本,内容能贡献的收入很小,但是徐宝龙认为长远来看,内容可以营造口碑,而且“好的儿童内容可以放十年?!?/p>

智伴同样重押内容。王不凡说,“想做儿童内容版的今日头条?!?/p>

这两年,智伴在内容上投入超过8000万,自研内容比例占30%。除了增加内容丰富度和差异化,智伴也在发力内容的个性化。

王不凡认为,智伴做这件事有两个优势:一方面,其app用户有500万,拥有大量用户数据。另一方面,智伴和一些云公司、语音公司深度搭建了私有云平台,而非传统的端对云方案,因此可以做到用户数据的更深度运营,比如个性内容推荐、建立更精准的用户画像,根据用户反馈做产品迭代等。

此外,智伴内容平台也于近日做了调整,将主打内容付费。

但对于普通的智能硬件商,做内容很难。无论是购买版权、还是自研内容,都需要足够的资金支持。此外,因为缺乏数据积累,小公司做内容的边际成本也很高。

定位为“儿童有声内容分发商"的牛听听,则把精力集中在内容运营,不自研内容,而是做好内容的整理、筛选和推荐,让内容更有效地被分发和使用。

牛听听主打儿童熏听功能,已经迭代了几个版本,从只有泛听,到增加精听、精读,去年年底还开始社群打卡的尝试。

段海云说,社群打卡功能是和早教机构沟通出来的。牛听听一直想和教培机构合作,曾观察英语机构的需求,发现大部分老师都会在课后布置磨耳朵的作业,且一般是在家长微信群上分发。微信群布置作业的问题是,老师无法获得有效反馈,因为孩子实际上有没有听是不知道的。

基于此,牛听听推出打卡社群,由老师把课程任务有节奏地安排好,所有课程录入一张随听卡内。孩子在家里,把卡片在牛听听设备上一刷就能收听,同时产生收听记录,听完之后也有问答互动、游戏环节。

此外,牛听听也是第一款拥有app在线答疑功能的早教机,客服响应速度能达到30s内。

包括优必选,也开始重视内容生态的搭建。但钟永认为,国内儿童内容的生态要成熟,至少还需要两三年。优必选的做法是,不再把人形机器人定位于儿童陪伴,不做泛教育,而是针对垂直场景做内容的特殊化定制,譬如服务于自闭症人群,把人形机器人的价值更大化。

如何抬高天花板?

内容生态要发力,但同时,早教机器人的形态和功能仍有许多想象空间。

徐宝龙表示,未来火火兔的产品形态会越做越细,比如按年龄段从小到大划分为故事机、视频机和机器人?;魅艘膊恢皇窃诠适禄幕∩显黾印八怠?,也可以阅读绘本。从听,到视听说读,儿童机器人的使用场景和年龄段会更加丰富。

绘本机器人也是多家早教产品公司都在探索的形态。到时比拼的将会是谁家的机器人可以读更多绘本、页面识别更准确、朗读效果更好、个性化服务做得更到位。依旧是数据沉淀和运营能力的较量。

“说起儿童手表就会想到小天才,但是早教机器人呢?谁都没坐到那个位置,“段海云认为,“智能早教机的形态和功能要提供到什么程度,也没有很好地出来。如果真正做出教育价值,最大化发挥出听书的价值,形成自己的完整闭环,市场空间会非常大?!?/p>

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彭宗娅

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浮沉若梦

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回复主题:浙江绍兴悦程妇产医院26岁产妇手术台不幸死亡事件初步调查情况通报,养儿方知父母恩,每个女人都是在用命生孩子!

太悲伤了,不知道你有没有想过这是一条不归路,孩子刚出生就没了妈妈,唉,无法表达我现在的心情,好伤心!🙏愿你来世安康,平安喜乐!🙏愿孩子一世安康,快乐长大!🙏愿天底下所有的孕妇顺顺利利生产,大人孩子一生平安!

不知所措

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回复主题:西安市曲江第二小学拟用“商铺”改教室,家长质疑:孩子的安全和学习如何保障?

刘东:“空气质量不用担心,我们会选择环保检测单位来进行检测,到时候所有检测材料我们都会提供给家长,让他们完完全全放心把孩子放到这里?!? 说这话的人一定在心里窃喜‘幸好我没买曲江二小学区房,我娃不在这上学’!你说话这么不负责任因为你不需要承担后果。施工结束到开学,一周不到的时间,竟然敢夸下??谒蛋踩?,让家长放心!厉害了!施工队在地面墙面走廊室外……刷的那一桶桶胶水你是“盲”的看不见吗!

拿望远镜看未来

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回复主题:东北大学秦皇岛分校学生公寓年服务费高达1.4万元,秦皇岛市委、市政府成立联合工作组进驻学校就“天价公寓”展开调查

应该好好查查鹏远到底是个什么样的公司,这分明是想逼良为娼的节奏嘛。教育再也经不起折腾了,青年学生是祖国的未来,需要全社会的人文关怀。校方如此作派,不单吃相太难看,就不怕寒了莘莘学子的心?将来提到母校,在他们的心里有挥扫不去的“阴影”,且不再引以为傲。

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