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结婚率出生率双降,婴幼儿配方奶粉行业阵阵寒意,奶粉产能过剩局面加剧

转载来源:第一财经 发布日期:2019年07月30日 婴童食品

繁荣多年的婴幼儿配方奶粉行业正在感受到阵阵寒意。

日前,在素有行业风向标之称2019CBME中国孕婴童展上,现场人流攒动,一片繁荣,但寒冬却成了展会期间提到最多的词汇,热闹的会场背后,大小参展奶粉品牌和经销商们的焦虑正在心中萌生。不难发现,随着结婚率和出生率的下滑,奶粉产能过剩的局面将加剧,而大品牌间的竞争,将让未来的行业生存环境变得更加残酷。

寒冬已至

在展会之前,一张行业论坛数据分享的照片几乎在母婴渠道刷屏,画面上用了“触目惊心的2019年”做标题,而内容则是母婴门店的生存现状:70%的母婴门店奶粉销量较2018年下滑了20%到30%,50%的母婴门店营业额腰斩,90%的母婴门店开新客量断崖式下跌。

“这不是一个夸张的说法?!鄙蕉嗟旱哪谭劬讨O壬嫠呒钦?,从今年以来,一部分母婴店的门店运营变得困难,奶粉和纸尿裤的生意明显下滑,一些有一定规模的小型区域连锁母婴店已经开始缩店或关门。

母婴行业面临的困境很大程度上来自于出生率的下降,直接体现就是在奶粉产品上,其一直是母婴门店的核心产品,占到相当可观的销售量。

熵一资本首席经济学家何帆在“2019CBME中国孕婴童产业峰会”上表示:“我们最需要关注的慢变量是什么?是人口??梢钥吹轿颐浅錾娜丝谠谙陆?,总和生育率也在下降?!?/p>

这一数据一方面体现在人口出生率上,2018年,中国全年出生人口1523万人,比2017年1723万的出生人口下降了200万,人口出生率为10.94‰。而另一方面则体现在结婚率上,国家统计局的数据显示,2017年国内婚姻登记总数为1063.1万对,而在2014年,这一数字为1302万对,三年间相差了近300万对,2018年的婚姻登记总数又同比减少48万对,结婚率为7.2‰。此外,我国育龄妇女平均初婚年龄从1990年的21.4岁连续推迟至2017年的25.7岁,婚龄推迟也对出生率走低带来影响。

华泰证券分析师梁中华在研报中指出,受到生育意愿和育龄妇女减少等因素影响,预计2019年新出生人口总数将降至1400万,5年内大概率跌破1300万。

“行业寒冬已经到来,2020年是寒冬,2021年也是?!北匆蛎?002570.SZ)总经理包秀飞告诉记者,奶粉市场的总容量不会再回到此前水平。

根据《2019CBME中国孕婴童产业趋势报告》,2018年奶粉行业代理商经营的各品类的销售增长情况,41%的奶粉代理商没有实现增长,而59%的零售商不考虑增加奶粉品牌。

而到2019年,随着人口出生减少对市场的影响逐步体现,寒冬的趋势更加明显,这也让经销商感到焦虑。2019年孕婴童展今年是首次分成两个场馆分开举办,并且分隔较远,此前还有参展企业担忧人员会被分流,但实际上参观人流量比往年只多不少,有多位经销商表示,自己专门从外地跑来,但却没有非常明确的产品需求,而是来了解行业形势,看看有没有新的机会。

品牌大战

寒冬之下,参展方也发生了很大的变化,前几届孕婴童展品牌展示和招商的意味更浓,尤其是国际贸易型奶粉产品招代理的模式占到近三分之一,而此次展会中,国际贸易型奶粉品牌几乎绝迹;几乎都换成了品牌企业。

江西美庐乳业总裁周晓法告诉记者,传统的国际贸易型奶粉一向操作简单,是“产品+渠道”的模式,只靠利润推动,但如今这样的模式似乎行不通了,虽然60%到70%的消费者购买产品依赖于母婴店的推荐,但在产品品牌上有了更多的要求。

据他介绍,目前母婴店奶粉的市场销售额的大幅下滑,这一变化让乳企感到压力巨大,倒逼企业不得不加大品牌教育、培训和消费者服务,来提升黏度,单纯的贸易模式已经卖不出去了。

而行业大企业也同样感到压力,采取了更加高举高打的方式。

孕婴童展前后,国内外几大乳企同时推出了新的品牌代言人,伊利股份为新上市的有机奶粉塞纳牧找来了谢娜,雅士利国际(01230.HK)则为其核心产品雅士利和羊奶粉品牌朵拉小羊找来了当红演员姚晨和黄景瑜,光明乳业(600597.SH)请来了演员刘昊然?;褂卸嗉抑行∪槠笱≡窳艘恍┒吆腿呙餍亲魑匀?。而此前,行业内只有少数品牌如飞鹤、健合集团(01112.HK)旗下的合生元等有明星代言。

“这一轮明星代言热背后就是品牌战争?!毖攀坷庞弊懿谜粤⒉ǜ嫠呒钦?,明星代言目的在于提升品牌形象和吸引消费者关注,尤其是当下市场竞争已经进入大品牌之间的竞争,产品安全已经不再是核心卖点,明星代言可以帮助消费者辨识品牌,也是展示企业实力和建立差异化。

明星代言固然是快消品企业常用的方式,但也意味着巨大的投入,除了代言费外,还需要大量的广告投入和市场活动来匹配。

以飞鹤乳业为例,在演员章子怡代言以及大量的市场活动推动下,飞鹤的核心产品销售额从2016年的7.1亿,增长至2018年的51.1亿元,但同时,飞鹤的广告费用从4.9亿元增长至11.7亿元,宣传费用从3.1亿元增长至6.1亿元。

在荷兰皇家菲仕兰中国高级副总裁杨国超看来,这一变化也从侧面说明了婴幼儿配方奶粉的竞争激烈,各企业销售面临很大的压力,都想通过求新求变的手段,来吸引消费者的关注和购买转化,来创造营销声势。但同时也说明,时尚育儿营销手段,包括时尚营销平台小红书、抖音等,以及明星代言对新一代消费者尤其是90后一代年轻妈妈的影响力在扩大。

但另一方面,企业不断加码品牌化也有苦衷。

独立乳业分析师宋亮表示,此前大型奶粉企业是希望通过不断对配方进行升级,最终形成产品的差异化,目前施行的婴配粉配方注册制虽然减少了奶粉市场品牌和乱象,但也给企业的配方调整产生了一定的限制,因此当前不得不在品牌上花更大的力气。

也有国内大型乳企高管透露,明星代言如今是不得不做,一方面竞争对手都在做,另一方面传统营销方式逐步失效,奶粉企业也需要更新的方式去接触和取悦消费者。

但杨国超认为,明星代言的效果还有待观望,毕竟低线市场并非时尚育儿营销的重点市场,而低线市场渠道的推广和推荐,以及同龄妈妈的口碑还是至关重要。

下沉和细分

随着国内奶粉市场总量规模的下降,国内奶粉行业正在从增量带动行业增长,转向存量市场的反复竞争,而在众多奶粉企业看来,当下要度过寒冬还希望有所增长,一方面在于渠道下沉,另一方则在于抓住细分市场的机会。

对于外资企业而言,更希望抓住渠道下沉的机会。除了外资企业固守的一、二线市场面临饱和,在新一轮二孩政策过程中,低线市场的生育意愿更为强烈,也意味着更多的市场机会。

杨国超告诉记者,由于出生率下降及市场需求总量的减少,今年婴配奶粉的市场竞争在加剧,完成既定目标困难不小。菲仕兰今年总体策略还是稳中求进,巩固一二线市场,巩固重点城市、重点渠道和重点客户,同时探索下沉低线市场。

事实上,从2017年底开始,包括皇家菲仕兰、惠氏、美赞臣等知名奶粉品牌都已经采取了一系列渠道下沉的策略,整体效果不错,但大多未达最初的预期。

杨国超认为,对于外资品牌企业来说,加速下沉是比较大的挑战,现在的市场环境不是说想加速下沉就可以沉得下去。低线市场的特点和营销与一二线市场有很大的差别。

根据尼尔森公布的数据,在低线城市,母婴渠道约占奶粉销售的50%。另有数据显示,目前国内的母婴店约有20万之多,但行业集中度很低,其对利润分配的追求,也成为阻碍外资品牌下沉的关键之—,如果太少则无法满足母婴店的胃口,太多可能会冲击现有的产品价格体系而得不偿失。

丹麦乳企mille food副总裁鄢志勇告诉记者,奶粉在母婴门店中既是利润产品又是流量产品,而且依然占到50%以上的销售额,市场下滑倒逼母婴店开始向品牌产品妥协,但这一过程并不会一蹴而就,在市场调研中发现,母婴店主既有对品牌妥协的想法,又有对利润规模的追求,这也是难点所在。因此mille food也在调整策略,将原有品牌拆分为二并独立运作,尝试通过“高质平价+非一线进口品牌”的策略来抢占低线市场。

对于大多数国内奶粉企业而言,本身布局就在3~5线市场,因此更希望抓住细分市场的机会。

赵立波认为,大品类牛奶粉的市场蛋糕不会再扩大,小品类的机会逐渐浮现,因此雅士利集团把下一步增长的机会放在羊奶粉和有机奶粉等细分领域。

包秀飞也表示认同,传统牛奶粉只是基础产品,未来细分市场的机会更突显功能性,比如在增强儿童体质或?;な恿Φ确矫?,以及技术含量更高的特殊医用配方奶粉领域。目前贝因美在这里也做了大量的储备,目前已有6个特殊医用配方通过注册,未来还有3个在等待审批。

值得注意的是,还有部分企业转向产业链上下游拓展,比如在本届展会上,健合集团此前收购的有机零食GOOD GOUT和羊奶粉新品也悉数亮相。今年3月刚从罗飞手上接过健合集团首席执行官一职的安玉婷认为,健合的策略将聚焦在“颠覆创新差异化”和“快速反应赢市场”。

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