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卫健委就托育机构设置标准及管理规范征求意见,0-3岁婴幼儿阶段托育市场将迎新标准

转载来源:学而时思 发布日期:2019年07月23日 政务互动

国家卫健委人口家庭司就《托育机构设置标准(试行)(征求意见稿)》《托育机构管理规范(试行)(征求意见稿)》公开征求意见。0-3岁婴幼儿阶段托育机构迎来国家标准,托育机构经营与投资从此有章可循,行业发展进入全新阶段。

卫健委就托育机构设置标准及管理规范征求意见。

2019年7月8日,国家卫健委人口家庭司发布关于《托育机构设置标准(试行)(征求意见稿)》《托育机构管理规范(试行)(征求意见稿)》公开征求意见的公告。两份文件主要基于《国务院办公厅关于促进3岁以下婴幼儿照护服务发展的指导意见》的思想制定,是对《2019政府工作报告》托育相关内容的具体落实。

照护产业受益全面二胎政策,是消费升级的重要体现。

0-3岁婴幼儿照护并非属于正规教育体系序列内,是更加市场化的服务行业。全面二胎政策放开背景下,80后、90后独生子女一代对婴幼儿照护服务的需求日益增加,托育机构设置和管理规范的出台将在保障婴幼儿健康发展的前提下,积极推动婴幼儿照护服务行业发展,以满足人民群众新的消费需求。

充分鼓励社会力量参与,设置具体标准托底。

文件内容支持采取多种方式鼓励和支持社会力量举办托育机构,同时允许托育机构自主选择营利性和非营利性。通过市场力量满足家长多层次需求,通过允许托育机构选择非营利性支持普惠照护服务。除此之外,两份文件对托育机构设置的流程和软硬件标准作出明确底限规定,以保障照护服务的质量。具体要求包括:场所为自有或租赁期限不低于3年、生活用房人均面积不低于3㎡,户外活动场地人均面积不低于2㎡,等等。

托育机构价格市场化,盈利能力预计与培训机构相当。

《管理规范》(征求意见稿)中条款显示托育机构可以实现市场化定价。我们以一家位于上海浦东塘桥的托育机构为参考测算,假设150学生规模、托育人员及其他员工40人,单人平均成本12000元/月,场所租金6元/平米、物业费5元/平米、800平米,以及考虑市场推广等费用,预计单店净利率低于15%。

风险因素:政策调整不及预期,行业竞争加剧的风险。

政策为纲,配置职教、高教、信息化。

总的来说,此份关于托育机构的政策文件对教育板块投资影响甚微,但是侧面反映国家及各部委对教育及相关领域的重视。我们的观点:政策是教育行业投资最基础逻辑,重申以政策为纲,重点配置职业教育、教育信息化等受益于政策方向的赛道,龙头为先。推荐充分享受职业教育改革发展红利的职教龙头中公教育,建议关注中国东方教育;配置高教股:中教控股、民生教育等;推荐龙头优势显著、成长空间看好的教育信息化龙头视源股份;关注K12课外培训龙头好未来、新东方,早教标的美吉姆配置机会。

事项

2019年7月8日,国家卫生健康委人口家庭司发布关于《托育机构设置标准(试行)(征求意见稿)》(以下称《设置标准》)《托育机构管理规范(试行)(征求意见稿)》(以下称《管理规范》)公开征求意见的公告。国家卫健委根据《国务院办公厅关于促进3岁以下婴幼儿照护服务发展的指导意见》(国办发﹝2019﹞15号)(以下称《指导意见》),组织起草了上述两份文件,并进行为期一个月的公开征求意见。

其中《设置标准》分总则、设置区域、设施设备、人员规模、功能职责、附则六章,共计29条;《管理规范》分总则、登记备案、收托管理、保育管理、健康管理、安全管理、人员管理、监督管理、附则九章,共计46条。

背景

从年龄段以及产业链所处节点来看,托育可以认为是个人生命成长发展周期的起点,衔接早教和幼教阶段。

本次《设置标准》和《管理规范》征求意见稿的出台主要依据的是2019年5月国务院印发的《国务院办公厅关于促进3岁以下婴幼儿照护服务发展的指导意见》。事实上,《2019年政府工作报告》中已经指出:要针对实施全面两孩政策后的新情况,加快发展多种形式的婴幼儿照护服务,支持社会力量兴办托育服务机构,加强儿童安全保障。发展婴幼儿照护服务不仅是为应对全面实施两孩政策后的新情况,同时也是满足人民群众新的消费需求,推动消费稳定增长的必然要求。

梳理有关部门关于0-3岁年龄段婴幼儿的教育、照护相关政策,最早可以追溯到2001年国务院印发的《中国儿童发展纲要》,首次提出发展0-3岁早期教育,2010年发布的《国家中长期教育改革和发展规划纲要(2010一2020)》中再次提出重视0至3岁婴幼儿教育。而和婴幼儿照护直接相关的则是,2018年4月上海颁布的《上海市3岁以下幼儿托育机构管理暂行办法》,是国内极少数提出托育机构设置标准的省份。

解读

托育的服务属性远大于教育属性,安全、健康是托育机构经营与投资的第一原则。

属性上看,允许同时存在营利性和非营利性。《设置标准》(征求意见稿)明确提出:充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用,采取多种方式鼓励和支持社会力量举办托育机构。此前《指导意见》明确,同时允许托育机构自主选择营利性和非营利性,分别到民政部门和工商部门登记。我们认为,1)允许选择营利性,本质上是因为托育更贴近看护服务,且需求规模庞大、地域分散,在相当长的时间内都无法纳入政府公共服务,必须引入社会资本投入,“营利性”是吸引社会资本投入的基础。2)托育机构本身具备极强的外部性,有助于解决家庭后顾之忧、提升劳动力产出,因此政策非常鼓励设立“非营利性”托育机构。

内容上看,托育服务的关键是安全和健康。《管理规范》(征求意见稿)26次提到健康,《设置标准》(征求意见稿)7次提到健康,两个文件也多个章节、段落强调安全。我们认为,托育机构服务的儿童群体年龄较小,容易出现健康和安全风险,因此无论是家长选择、机构经营和投资、还是政府评估兼顾,安全和健康均是牢不可破的底线。在人员配备上,尽管《设置标准》(征求意见稿)并未要求具体的具备卫生健康知识的保健员数量,但我们认为实际在经营中,人员招聘应当向医护相关专业倾斜。

教育内容是托育机构的加分项。站在家长的角度,在托育过程中增加早教服务,配备专业师资和相关的教学教具,是重要的加分项。教育服务内容得到家长认可,收费可以明显提升。但这恰恰是行业聚集风险所在,部分托育机构容易将定位明显向教育倾斜,尽管短期可以追求更好的盈利能力,但长期来看却容易积聚风险、拖累行业长期健康发展。

居民小区应当配套托育机构但不强制规定营&非性质

《设置标准》(征求意见稿)要求:新建居住区应当规划建设与常住人口规模相适应的托育机构。老城区和已建成居住区,应当采取多种方式建设完善婴幼儿照护服务设施,满足居民需求。对比国务院办公厅印发《关于开展城镇小区配套幼儿园治理工作的通知》对小区配套幼儿园的严格要求,虽也要求居民小区应当配套托育机构,但并未强制要求小区配套托育机构必须是非营利性。一方面在于幼儿园需求更加刚需,另一方面在于幼儿园的普惠性要求更高,托育机构相对更加市场化。

严格要求场地条件和规格

《设置标准》(征求意见稿)对托育机构场地的性质,配套标准,人均面积提出明确规定:

1、要求应当有自有场地或租赁期不少于3年的租赁场地,其中对租赁期的要求意味着要求托育机构能够尽量长期稳定经营,减少带来各种不便和纠纷

2、明确生活用房人均面积不低于3㎡,户外活动场地人均面积不低于2㎡,且每个班的生活用房应当为独立使用的单元。上海此前要求托育机构建筑面积不低于360㎡(只招收本单位、本社区适龄幼儿且人数不超过25人的,建筑面积不低于200㎡),且幼儿人均建筑面积不低于8㎡;户外场地符合《托儿所、幼儿园建筑设计规范》(JGJ39)的,幼儿人均建筑面积不低于6㎡。对比上海的政策可以发现,此次《设置标准》规定的生均面积属于托底性质,未来各地可能出台地方细则,提出更高的要求。

明确班型设置和人员配备,保证照护质量

《设置标准》(征求意见稿)就托育机构整体婴幼儿数量规模,班型设置,工作人员配备同样作出了明确规定,我们认为这同样只是托底要求,各地可以提供更高标准,而出台这一要求的出发点在于,婴幼儿本身不具备任何自理能力,充足的工作人员配比是保证照护质量和婴幼儿安全的重要保证。

允许托育机构自主定价,市场化程度高

《管理规范》(征求意见稿)明确:托育机构应当与婴幼儿监护人签订托育服务协议,明确双方的责任、权利义务、服务项目、收费标准以及争议纠纷处理办法等内容,意味着托育机构可以实现市场化定价。

托育机构盈利能力几何?

以150人规模设置上限为标准,假设乳儿班(6-12个月,10人以下)、小托班(12-24个月,15人以下)、大托班(24-36个月,20人以下)三种班型按人数平均分配设置。则在150人规模下,乳儿班5个班(50人),小托班3个班(45人),大托班3个班(60人),满班人数155人。

根据以上假设,按全年满班运营计算,则一个150人左右规模的托育机构,需要托育人员及其他员工40人,室内生活用房485㎡,室外活动场地310㎡。

以位于上海浦东新区塘桥地铁站附近的一家托育机构为参考进行测算(暂时不考虑上海本地细则要求):

1、营业收入:假设收取的平均价格为6500元/月,则全年155人满班情况,单店收入约为1,200万。

2、人工成本:根据智联招聘发布的《2019年夏季中国雇主需求与白领人才供给报告》显示,当前上海平均薪酬为10,662元,考虑社保等因素影响,假设托育机构需要承担单人每月约12,000的人工成本,因此全年40名员工成本为576万。

3、租金:根据搜房网显示,样本托育机构附近300米某建筑面积500㎡的临街商铺月租金为88,000元(月5.87/㎡/天),物业费5.00元/㎡/月,考虑到室外活动场地难以获取,因此假设所有场地均为室内,则单店至少需要约800㎡,计算年租金约为176万。

4、因此扣除薪酬和租金后毛利润约448万,毛利率约37%,考虑到上海实际要求更严格、实际毛利率水平预计低于37%。

5、考虑到场地运营的其他成本、市场推广成本等其他成本,该测算店的净利率预计低于15%。

投资策略

婴幼儿照护并不属于正式教育体系序列内,因此可以充分采用市场化的模式运营。此次国家卫健委出台《托育机构设置标准(试行)(征求意见稿)》《托育机构管理规范(试行)(征求意见稿)》是对《2019年政府工作报告》思想的落实,意在推动婴幼儿照护的规范发展。满足新形势下家长对婴幼儿照护日益增长的需求。

落实到教育板块,目前暂无照护类托育机构上市,相关度最高的是早教机构美吉姆(002621.SZ)和母婴社区平台宝宝树集团(01761.HK),不排除两家公司未来进行产业链延伸或者线上线下结合,涉足婴幼园托育业务。

对于教育板块的整体观点,维持观点:以政策为纲,重点配置职业教育、教育信息化等受益于政策方向的赛道,龙头为先。推荐充分享受职业教育改革发展红利的职教龙头中公教育,建议关注中国东方教育;配置高教股:中教控股、民生教育等;推荐龙头优势显著、成长空间看好的教育信息化龙头视源股份;关注K12课外培训龙头好未来、新东方,早教标的美吉姆配置机会。

网友评论

忙碌小琪

  • (游客) 8小时前

回复主题:安徽铜陵市教师周安员师生冲突后崩溃投江自杀,教师家属打算起诉学生家长,谁该为这起悲剧负责?

怎么说呢?社会上很多关于老师的新闻,老师如果真的做错了,整个教育局带着老师去给人家赔礼道歉,这个我没意见,这就应该的??赏蛞灰羌页ご砹四??不见得有警察押着家长给老师赔礼道歉。现在的老师们大多当得憋屈。如果有关机构能够在老师受委屈时站出来维护老师,老师也不至于寻短见。

阿坷

  • (游客) 8小时前

回复主题:安徽铜陵市教师周安员师生冲突后崩溃投江自杀,教师家属打算起诉学生家长,谁该为这起悲剧负责?

说实话,制度没有保障或者某些巨婴家长不改变态度的话,吃亏的是孩子,最后的结果就是老师该干嘛干嘛,讲完一堂课下课,她没有什么损失,最多少点奖金而已,可是作为巨婴家长,我想多年以后社会和法律会教你的孩子的。

青豆丝

  • (游客) 8小时前

回复主题:安徽铜陵市教师周安员师生冲突后崩溃投江自杀,教师家属打算起诉学生家长,谁该为这起悲剧负责?

为什么现在中国的教师完全活得一点尊严都没有?熊家长为什么要被有关部门惯得像巨婴一样?!无非就是教师,有文化但没有权利,如果对方是公务员,结果又会怎么样呢?凭什么学生的一切悪都要教师来背锅?像这样下去?中国还有教师么?还有没有真正意义上的教师?!这样让人寒心,害的是谁?

不试不作不死

  • (游客) 8小时前

回复主题:安徽铜陵市教师周安员师生冲突后崩溃投江自杀,教师家属打算起诉学生家长,谁该为这起悲剧负责?

我想说,罪魁祸首不是家长,而是学校,周老师劝阻学生打架是在履行自己职责,是作为老师在对学校和学生负责,遇到无理家长的纠缠,学校甚至整个教育系统没有?;ふ馕痪≈暗睦鲜?,反而将他独自推出去面对一切,这才是导致悲剧的原因。

前海沿

  • (游客) 1天前

回复主题:河南济源市人民医院回应“窗口低孕妇跪着就诊”并发布情况通报 医院已报警并与当事人取得联系

没什么不合理的,这样的窗口如果你常出门就会发现多了去了,银行也这么高,这样的窗口一般你站着或者坐着递进去材料就行了,双方交流的话一般在窗口上方有喇叭扩音器,并且玻璃都是透明的,无障碍交流和里面交流,没必要把头伸到窗口和里面的人交流。

李格瑞德

  • (游客) 1天前

回复主题:河南济源市人民医院回应“窗口低孕妇跪着就诊”并发布情况通报 医院已报警并与当事人取得联系

有同志说这个窗口不算矮,并且工作人员也提供了凳子,是当事孕妇自己选择了跪着这一姿势。从现场照片看,旁边黑衣男子是低头躬身的姿势。所以,为什么医院要把窗口设计成让人低头弯腰的高度呢?这个高度到底是方便了窗口内坐着的工作人员?还是窗口外来就医的病患?人民医院有没有全心全意为人民服务呢?

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