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沉浮与洗涤,震荡之后的幼教产业,资本热潮退去后的聚焦点

转载来源:芥末堆 发布日期:2019年06月05日 教育培训

“行业地震”“重新洗牌”“转折点”,用这些词来形容民办幼儿园的过去一年并不失分。

“以2018年底《中共中央 国务院关于学前教育深化改革规范发展的若干意见》(以下简称《意见》)为标志,民办幼儿园20年市场化的黄金期终结了?!鞭妊艚逃芯吭焊痹撼ふ攀乩袼?。

《意见》发布后第二天,红黄蓝股价20分钟内触发两次熔断,收盘时股价跌幅超过50%,市值蒸发约2.5亿美元。A股幼教概念股与拥有幼教业务的港股公司同样受到冲击,威创股份即日跌停,枫叶教育跌幅近20%。

如此震荡之下,调整打法是不得已的必然之举。

今年财报季,曾将收并购幼儿园作为扩张方式的上市公司纷纷修订发展策略,丰富自研产品、拓展0-3岁及6岁以后的市场成为红黄蓝、威创股份等主打幼教业务的企业不约而同的选择。

政策变化的震感还波及包括一线幼儿园经营者、幼儿园服务提供商、幼儿园投资方等在内整个幼儿园产业链?!懊癜煸暗淖褪鞘圃诒匦械??!闭攀乩袼?。

至于转向何方的问题,普惠性幼儿园、民办高端园、小微幼儿园以及管理幼教资产的上市公司给出了不同的答案。

告别“黄金时代”

“这(《意见》)恐怕要引发行业地震了?!备盏弥兑饧贩⒉际?,AI幼教服务商智童时刻的公关总监陈晓东对芥末堆说。

2018年11月15日晚间,新华社受权播发《意见》,其中对于“民办园一律不准单独或作为一部分资产打包上市”的规定令人注目。这项新规之下,上市公司不再能够通过股票市场融资、发行股份或现金支付购买营利性幼儿园。

顿时,幼儿园证券化之路遭遇大刹车。

四年之前,凭借入行门槛低、市场需求旺盛、管理方式通用性强的特点,幼教标的曾一度成为很多A股上市公司跨界进入教育产业、挽回主业颓势的灵丹妙药。

2018年部分上市公司的幼教相关业务

以威创股份为例,2015年其先后收购红缨教育和金色摇篮两大幼教品牌,一举将约2800家幼儿园纳入麾下,成为当时幼教行业内管理幼儿园数量最多的公司。对应到财报上,幼教板块在2015年度给威创股份带来1.89亿元新增营收,占公司总营收的五分之一。

很快有更多的幼教资产涌入资本市场,A股、港股、新三板、美股通吃。

秀强股份、电光科技等A股上市公司陆续通过收购并入幼儿园业务;新三板上,凭借幼儿园经营及幼教服务挂牌的企业更是不少。

在美股市场,被红黄蓝形容为“高度可规?;钡牧用松桃的J街С牌湟?8.5美元的首发价上市,并让红黄蓝股价在2017年10月3日一度达到峰值31.8美元。

红黄蓝股价自上市以来的变化情况,2017年底被曝虐童和《意见》出台是两个股价暴跌的转折点

直到《意见》发出前一个月,仍有规??晒鄣挠锥安⒐喊咐⑸?。

2018年10月16日,0-6岁育儿整体解决方案提供方麦忒教育宣布以20%的股权完成对小红帽教育100%股权的并购,旗下园所数量超过730家。麦忒教育创始人张萌雨当时透露,公司正在筹备启动赴美上市。

如今回看,红黄蓝IPO事件更像是幼儿园资产在资本市场最后的高光时刻。随着《意见》出台,资本的故事戛然而止,对幼儿园的规范却在进一步加强。

今年1月,国务院办公厅下发《关于开展城镇小区配套幼儿园治理工作的通知》,要求城镇小区的配套幼儿园及时移交当地教育行政部门,且不得为营利性质。

与此同时,距离完成《意见》提出的全国普惠性幼儿园覆盖率达到80%的目标已经不足一年。在民办幼儿园原本就占据全国幼儿园63%比例的情况下,普惠性民办幼儿园注定将成为完成这一指标的主力。

无论是单体园、高端园、集团办学园还是小微园,民办幼儿园的改变与应变都在所难免。

转向进行时

“新政来得突然,幸好我们上市后由原来的幼儿园所扩张转到科技和内容领域,上市后没有再并购任何一家幼儿园?!?1世纪教育品牌部一位工作人员在《意见》发出后两周内对《经济观察报》表示。

21世纪教育的幼教业务很快转向。2018年,集团以收购的方式开辟了互联网事业群作为全新的业务板块。收购标的旗下的爸妈搜和一起朗读两大儿童教育品牌拥有130万用户,提供包括家庭教育、亲子阅读课程等在内的服务。

在2018年报中,21世纪教育再次表示将终止扩张线下幼儿园所,并将以轻资产的形式开展面向0-18岁儿童及青少年的素质教育服务。

通过公告表明立场的上市公司不止21世纪教育一家。

《意见》发布后第二天部分业务涉及幼教领域的上市公司股价变动情况

虽然教育业务对2017年整体营收的贡献比例还不到10%,运营管理约100所幼儿园及早教中心的秀强股份在《意见》出台后随即表态,称将暂缓对教育业务的收购并购。

与之类似,威创股份在2018年报中将此前“继续投资并购具有协同价值的幼教集团”“通过投资并购和产业发展继续提高服务园所数量”的说法悄然去掉。取而代之的是“儿童成长平台战略”,并称集团将加大对0-3岁托育、3-8岁儿童素质教育的投入。

回应政策的另一方式是将上市公司体系内的幼儿园转型为普惠园,可这种做法同样存在风险:虽然可以获得政府补贴,但盈利模型的变化意味着利润率下降、资本周旋空间变窄。

2018财年红黄蓝营收按业务分类的构成情况

红黄蓝正尝试将旗下部分园所申办为普惠园?!按雍旎评蹲陨硎导槔纯?,民办园转普惠园的难点在于园所的规划性质、产权权属、前期投入以及历史问题?!焙旎评陡弊懿谜欧浴吨泄ā方馐?。红黄蓝首席财务官魏萍也坦言,业务调整可能对公司短期利润率产生影响。

在幼儿园运营层面之上,红黄蓝还在今年2月提出要将品牌名由“RYB Education”改为“GEH Education”。更名后,“RYB”将继续作为幼儿园与亲子园的品牌,“GEH”则可以装进更多的业务线及产品。

不过,一切的战略转向都不可能一步到位。2018年,红黄蓝业务增速全面放缓,并且由盈转亏。自《意见》发布后,红黄蓝的股价长期徘徊在6-8美元上下,其市值相比刚上市时缩水约三分之二。

前路且行且清晰

受到《意见》影响的不只是零星几家幼教上市公司。

“资本市场里绝大多数收购已经暂停?!蔽恍挛蠢唇逃蹲视邢薰痉ㄈ苏畔Ω咚?,“只有一二线城市还有收购,但是估值至少减半,而且要求是营利性幼儿园?!?/p>

在营利性幼儿园中,中高端幼儿园是受到较多青睐的一类。即使不能上市,长期持有中高端营利性幼儿园依然可以带来盈利与分红?!熬孟滦兄?,幼儿园行业的投资价值更能凸显出来?!蔽疵獯词既怂镂八?。

未名之光的部分投资项目标

作为一家0-6岁幼教投资及运营公司,未名之光筛选被投项目时会偏好有良好财务表现的中高端园所,且以单体投资为多。这家公司成立3年间已在全国11个省市投资运营近20家高端幼儿园。

“从某种意义上来说,现在的政策对优质高端园的发展会更加有利?!?广东省佛山市一所幼儿园的园长洪洁州说,“我接触到的一些高端园都在加强软实力,比如挖掘品牌价值、拓展业务领域?!背<囊滴裱由旆较虬ㄍ杏?、游学、国际教育、师资培训,这些都最终指向平台化的发展方向。

相比之下,普惠园的腾挪空间就比较小。中国教育科学研究院研究员储朝晖认为,普惠园虽然能得到政府财政资助,但由于可掌控的经费有限,园所不太可能在课程研发、教师培训等方面进行更多投入。

“对于多数普惠园来说,能做的无非是在遵循国家规定的前提下进行成本控制,并尽可能争取到更好的等级评定?!焙榻嘀菟?。

在中高端园所与普惠园之外,小微幼儿园是民办园之中较为特别的一类。

小微幼儿园很多时候无法达到办园审批指标,它们区别于追求规?;⒄沟挠锥?,往往拥有创新的办园理念和模式。上海绿种子童园、北京日日新天趣园、大理市猫猫果儿幼儿社区等都可被视为此类园所的代表。

一位2019创新教育年会暨首届小微幼儿园论坛参会者对幼儿园的期许

21世纪教育研究院院长杨东平在“有点好”2019创新教育年会暨首届小微幼儿园论坛分享了一个数字:“根据北京某教育大区去年年底的统计,其幼儿学位一共是2.9万,其中1.1万是由不规范的、小规模的家庭园提供,也就是说‘黑园’约占38%?!?

目前,一些城市已经在对小微幼儿园释放积极信号,北京市和广州天河区、福州市鼓楼区都陆续开启社区办园点和小微幼儿园的许可。

可以看到,无论是对于走向平台化发展的上市公司,还是对于因地制宜调整经营方向的民办园,丰富业务线、注重品质、打造品牌都是它们在资本热潮退去后的聚焦点。

“因为资产没办法通过证券化迅速变现,只能慢慢经营了?!焙榻嘀菟?,“马太效应永远存在,好的园所肯定是吃香的?!?/p>

网友评论

忙碌小琪

  • (游客) 1天前

回复主题:安徽铜陵市教师周安员师生冲突后崩溃投江自杀,教师家属打算起诉学生家长,谁该为这起悲剧负责?

怎么说呢?社会上很多关于老师的新闻,老师如果真的做错了,整个教育局带着老师去给人家赔礼道歉,这个我没意见,这就应该的??赏蛞灰羌页ご砹四??不见得有警察押着家长给老师赔礼道歉。现在的老师们大多当得憋屈。如果有关机构能够在老师受委屈时站出来维护老师,老师也不至于寻短见。

阿坷

  • (游客) 1天前

回复主题:安徽铜陵市教师周安员师生冲突后崩溃投江自杀,教师家属打算起诉学生家长,谁该为这起悲剧负责?

说实话,制度没有保障或者某些巨婴家长不改变态度的话,吃亏的是孩子,最后的结果就是老师该干嘛干嘛,讲完一堂课下课,她没有什么损失,最多少点奖金而已,可是作为巨婴家长,我想多年以后社会和法律会教你的孩子的。

青豆丝

  • (游客) 1天前

回复主题:安徽铜陵市教师周安员师生冲突后崩溃投江自杀,教师家属打算起诉学生家长,谁该为这起悲剧负责?

为什么现在中国的教师完全活得一点尊严都没有?熊家长为什么要被有关部门惯得像巨婴一样?!无非就是教师,有文化但没有权利,如果对方是公务员,结果又会怎么样呢?凭什么学生的一切悪都要教师来背锅?像这样下去?中国还有教师么?还有没有真正意义上的教师?!这样让人寒心,害的是谁?

不试不作不死

  • (游客) 1天前

回复主题:安徽铜陵市教师周安员师生冲突后崩溃投江自杀,教师家属打算起诉学生家长,谁该为这起悲剧负责?

我想说,罪魁祸首不是家长,而是学校,周老师劝阻学生打架是在履行自己职责,是作为老师在对学校和学生负责,遇到无理家长的纠缠,学校甚至整个教育系统没有?;ふ馕痪≈暗睦鲜?,反而将他独自推出去面对一切,这才是导致悲剧的原因。

前海沿

  • (游客) 2天前

回复主题:河南济源市人民医院回应“窗口低孕妇跪着就诊”并发布情况通报 医院已报警并与当事人取得联系

没什么不合理的,这样的窗口如果你常出门就会发现多了去了,银行也这么高,这样的窗口一般你站着或者坐着递进去材料就行了,双方交流的话一般在窗口上方有喇叭扩音器,并且玻璃都是透明的,无障碍交流和里面交流,没必要把头伸到窗口和里面的人交流。

李格瑞德

  • (游客) 2天前

回复主题:河南济源市人民医院回应“窗口低孕妇跪着就诊”并发布情况通报 医院已报警并与当事人取得联系

有同志说这个窗口不算矮,并且工作人员也提供了凳子,是当事孕妇自己选择了跪着这一姿势。从现场照片看,旁边黑衣男子是低头躬身的姿势。所以,为什么医院要把窗口设计成让人低头弯腰的高度呢?这个高度到底是方便了窗口内坐着的工作人员?还是窗口外来就医的病患?人民医院有没有全心全意为人民服务呢?

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